Monte Carlo Flood Risk Analysis

 

We developed a Monte Carlo based Flood Risk Modeling Framework that is capable of performing numerous 2D flood simulations by incorporating data and parameter uncertainties. For more information on the demonstration of the framework, please refer to Kalyanapu et al., (2012) published in Journal of Flood Risk Management.

 

Recently, GoldSim Simulation Software is being used to develop a Monte Carlo-based flood modeling framework for estimating probability weighted flood risk was recently developed using a computationally efficient graphics processing unit (GPU) based two dimensional (2D) hydraulic model. This 2D flood model generates event-driven flood flow hydrographs using a Markov Rainfall Generation model. The Markov model produces more realistic, random rainfall events that are fed into a watershed model to produce probabilistic hydrographs. The Monte Carlo flood risk modeling framework demonstrates the ability to provide improved flood risk characterization and greater insight into the spatial distribution of flood risk. Click on the following link to view the presentation: AWRA (2012) Presentation

 

Figure below depicts the developed integrated modeling framework.

GoldSim Simulation Software is visually enhanced, dynamic simulation framework used for modeling complex systems in business, engineering, and science. GoldSim also supports decision and risk analysis by simulating future performance while quantitatively representing the uncertainty and risks inherent in all complex systems.

© 2020 by Alfred Kalyanapu.

Water Resources Modeling and Simulation Research Group at Tennessee Tech University